RESTORATION Dec. 2009: 'Arbeit macht frei' sign stolen from Auschwitz. Shimon Peres calls Polish prime minister to join general chorus demanding that every effort be made to have ARBEIT MACHT FREI restored to its proper place.
>food/commodity prices: (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JI11Dj02.html )>(overall)
Food trades fatal price pendulum
Food trades fatal price pendulum
commodity price inflation at annualized 65% between August 2007-July 2008: peak effect on consumer spending 'precipitated recession'; ignored by central banks as food and energy outside 'core' inflation (at 1-2% 2001-2008); commodity inflation AS 'delayed reaction' to low central bank interest rates (?further explanation of how, and why delayed? i.e. switch from earlier 'reaction' in FIRE asset prices?); fed disregarded commodity inflation at 25% (blaming India, China, oil producers) in August 2007 and loosened money, pushing rate up to 65% & setting off 'downward spiral' in 'real economy' (*eg trade/logistics freeze); commodity 'free-fall' August-December 2008, 'explained by': (1.) commodity inflation-driven recession killing real demand, & (2.) flight of money from speculative funds in 'financial crisis'; from March 2009, hyper-expansionary monetary & fiscal policy, (*i.e. superabundant liquidity more or less unable to leave financial 'sphere') drives renewed commodity buying: 31% recovery from February (?until?)/ 75% annualized rate, oil price doubled desite flat demand; 'food & oil most vulnerable as demand inelastic'; 'c. inflation erodes worker/pensioner income & redistributes towards 'speculators & borrowers'; 'economic recovery' would further exacerbate the process (*?presumably by addition of real demand to existing speculative price-drivers):
> sept. 2009: 'scourge of food commodity price inflation returns': http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KI18Dj02.html >nov. 2009: commodity traders move into direct trading (i.e. offshore stockpiling) rather than futures 'out of fear of arbitrage failure under demand-excess conditions brought about by liquidity excess >(question, following from crisis group discussion: where has bailout money gone (i.e. we know stories about renewed bank profits & bonuses; but what kind of 'circulation' has generated the nominal numbers? i.e. what (else) is inflated with nominal liquidity given its non-appearance in officially 'inflationary' production & consumption; commodities trade 'largely ignored' in 'development debate'(!); since 1990, sub-saharan africa has become net importer of 'traditional domestic products': cassava, corn, millet, sorghum, sugar'; net 'LDC' imports of rice & wheat up 124 & 130% to 5 & 13 million tonnes since 1990; 'without this change in trading patterns, there might have been no food crisis in 2008'
>atol s.11 2008 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JI11Dj02.html: 'how can both high & low food commodity prices be a problem for the same group of (exporting) countries?': 'small farmers may benefit (from high prices) at the time of year when they sell cash crops, but when own produce is exhausted & they have to buy food, 'hurt like any other consumer'; last major commodities boom late 1970s: average prices of 22 major commodities since then 'deflated against index of developed countries manufactured exports' for 30-year comparison. a few minerals up: oil, iron, copper, phosphates at 59, 96, 103 & 45%. (tin down 54%, aluminium & gold flat). fertilizers 'fastest rise of all commodity groups' (no statistic). 'combined with oil prices, this suggests that food crisis is one of fertilizer & energy-heavy 'intensive' agriculture. crop inflation 'will benefit low-input smallholders more'. 'meanwhile', 12 agricultural prices down significantly (exceptions: bananas up 17%, rubber & tropical logs flat). corn, wheat, rice, soya: down 25, 19, 45, 28%. coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton down 50%+: TO 37, 35, 44, 43% of previous levels (affecting eg. Ethiopia, Burundi, Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso); price regulation argument: coffee & tin subject to regulation agreements collapsing in 1989 & 1985. among sharpest falls since then. tariff (etc?)-based national stockpiling of high-yielding rice 'over 40 years' in China & 'green revolution' India. commonwealth/eu price support for ex/territorial exports until wto dissolution
>atol july 2008 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JG09Dj02.html: over 'past 18 months' to july 2008, real estate asset crash/'alarming' inflation of 'commodities especially oil & food'. oil up 50% since 2005; rice more than 100% & 'wheat not far behind'; against 'increased demand from china & india' argument, stockpiles 'sufficient' (except east africa): supply/demand inadequate explanation; (economists acknowledge 'speculation' as secondary factor to supply/demand+fuel prices in food inflation); 'commodities incl. food' seen as 'relatively safe investment' due to stable demand compared with eg. houses, computers; imf/world bank deregulation of trade & agriculture allowed market speculation & attendant 'herd mentality' in, leading 'over-inflated food market like mortgage market'; but neither 'underplayed' speculation nor demand (note FLAT per capita consumption in China & India coinciding with middle class increase: therefore DECLINING consumption in remainder of population). consider also: IMF "advice" to 'reduce or eliminate grain reserves', tariff elimination on eu/us food exports, removal of subsidies on fertilizer & 'other agricultural inputs (also IMF/WB); 'since about 1980', mechanisms for government control of food supply removed & replaced by 'national & international private companies' at behest of 'international financial institutions'; but also insufficient to explain recent sharp food inflation: IMF etc policies in place since c.1980, during which time food prices have generally fallen; rising oil, transport & fertilizer prices also contribute to sudden inflation but don't wholly explain it; speculation 'may be main driving factor' in current spike, but 'all was not well before current crisis'. 'since c.1960', transformation of food production from 'local business' with export luxury surplus to 'primarily global business', as 'international trade rules' favour export over local consumption, with disappearance of small farms (across Asia, Latin America, North America & Europe) under agribusiness economies of scale, chemical fertilizer, pesticides, GM Os?. 'knee-jerk' deliberalization of agriculture by 'more than 25 countries & eu' as 'necessary' response but 'not a solution'. (proposed instead: 'deglobalization' of agriculture: national 'food sovereignty, reversal of trade agreements, speculation tax); food crisis as 'convergence of two crises': 'crisis of speculation' & 'crisis of global agriculture' ensuing from IFI/'market fundamentalist' policy >[*'opposite' phenomena from same structural causes, eg. inflation/deflation as identifying characterisitc of (??) perpetual normal crisis?]
>'foreign policy in focus', oct. 2008 http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5583 'commodifying nature's last straw' (etc group report title): 'extreme genetic engineering', i.e. extraction of 'high value chemicals, polymers & other molecular building blocks' from sugars in biological feedstocks: 'agricultural crops, grasses, forest residues, plant oils, algae etc') in 'sugar economy' or 'carbohydrate economy'. 'convergence' of funding from 'energy, chemical & agribusiness giants', eg. Du Pont?, BP, Shell, Chevron, Cargill (leading to university-industry deals, eg BP-Berkely $500m), & 'unprecedented alliances between oil, pharma, chemical, agribusiness, automotive & forest products sectors (eg. Du Pont?-Tate & Lyle-Genecor; US Do E?-Cargill-Dow-Du Pont?-Shell-Iogen); main focus on fuel (esp. ethanol, biodiesel), which 'swamps chemical & material markets'; industrial agrofuels as 'single greatest factor' driving food price inflation [>]; 'Nature' says synthetic biology 'might be tailored to marginal lands': Steven Chu cites Latin America & sub-saharan africa. >'single greatest factor': 'a note on rising food prices', donald mitchell, unsaveable pdf linked to fpif article: world bank food price index up 140% Jan. 2002-Feb. 2008; us/eu biofuel production increase as single most important factor, without which 'export bans & speculative activity would not have occurred as they are responses to rising prices, australian droughts would only have reduced global crop exports by 4%'; dollar decline, plus rising energy & fertilizer prices, assessed at 35% out of total 140 2002-(early) 2008 increase, with the rest attributed to biofuel '& related consequences of low grain stocks, large land use shifts, speculative activity & export bans' [*i.e. speculation & capital controls all grouped under heading of ‘biofuel’, making the latter automatically the biggest factor]
>'food crisis & gender' (fpif, oct. 2008) http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5637: 'food prices up 83% in 3 years up to 2008; end of oct. 2008 (i.e. mid-decline), still 60% up; 'failure of entitlement rather than supply', with 'disproportionate imact' on 'global rural south' dependent on 'small farming/selling labour/combination of both'; 'regional isolation within nations' & noninvestment in small farming leading to dependence on food imports for survival; within this, 'disproportionate impact' on 'women & children (esp. girls)' under 'gendering of agrarian societies in terms of property rights, division of labour, direct knowledge of natural resource base & access to & control over productive resources'; 30-60% of households in subsaharan africa 'de facto or legally female headed'; erosion of 'traditional male' sphere of wage/carbohydrate provision (eg diverted into debt sales of cash crops or labour migration) leaves women responsible for this as well as 'traditional female' labour
>Intermittently through most of 2008-2009: farmers in Argentina 'strike' against export taxes imposed during high world market prices & local shortages.
>Dec. 2009: iron ore price negotiations dragged out over most of year between producers (eg. Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale) & Chinese steel makers 'set to end with no benchmark price'. Chinese mills insist on 40% reduction from previous benchmark; Australian/Brazilian miners threaten to sell on 'spot' market (where Indian ore is already 40% below benchmark, but which 'may have bottomed out'. Consequent 'exposure to volatility for both sides'.
>Jul. 2008: EU in intensive lobbying over 'Singapore Issues' in Africa, eg. investment protection, competition policy, government procurement. Removed from WTO agenda at Cancun 2003, but now back in form of bilateral 'Economic Partnership Agreements' (EPA). Europe threatens withdrawal of African trade preferences unless markets are 'opened' this way. (http://www.spectrezine.org/Africa/Bond.htm) Interim agreement initialled Nov. 2007. Sept. 2009: some smaller African countries/former SA clients signed up in June (Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana); South Africa, Namibia, East, Central & West Africa still negotiating See also: www.afrol.com; allAfrica.com. Sep. 2009: European demand for intellectual property clauses in EP As? is 'hidden threat to securing food supplies and agriculural biodiversity' (http://www.africa-eu.org/In-depth/Food-crisis)>korean madagascar land-grab/coup >china-angola oil boom >ghana oil onstream >nigeria: delta amnesty and chinese overture, rejected by delta militant leaders mid-negotiation with government & western oil groups >(looting of nature: gas 'flaring' & non-capture of available energy) >south africa: anti-immigrant riots, public sector/stadium builders strikes, abahlali attack
>london g20 $250 billion SDR allocation: based on IMF quotas: c.$80-100m to 'developing' countries; c.$11bn/5% to subsaharan africa; c.aug.-sep. 2009, imf expected to propose transfer of sdrs not from 'rich to poor countries' (with 'donors' still liable for interest) but to the imf itself to lend on usual conditions >Aug. 2009 (http://en.afrik.com/article16044.html): 'Life in African cities more expensive than San Francisco, Luxembourg, Brussels, Miami': Mercer comparative 'cost of living' surveys based on business expatriate spending demolished by price/income comparison: EUR 1,200 a month on 'basic necessities' from EUR 2,000 in Brussels versus 100% OR MORE of FCFA 100,000 on rent in Douala/Dakar. thus: 'Kudos to...emigration'; 'corruption...immediate corollary of high cost of living'. 'International representation' of companies in Lagos, Douala, Abidjan, Dakar (low-ranking appearances in Mercer 'expensive list') as directly contributing factor to unaffordable rent. add privatized health sector and 'being a healthy 60-yr old is a blessing'. also: 'increasing logistics is compounded with less productivity & more imports. meant in Abidjan imported from Bamako. 'overconsumption with little or no production is a reminder of what caused the recent riots in the French west indies'.
Aug. 2009 (http://en.afrik.com/article16075.html): vulture funds profit from African debt relief, buying debt at tiny proprotions of face value and suing for payment plus accumulated interest, eg. FG Hemisphere Fund: awarded $105m by US court on $30m 1980 Mobutu Zaire debt; Donegal International $15m on $3m Zambian debt (60% total 2007 debt relief). NG Os? counter-campaigning on 'transparency' grounds (*?but isn't this the perfectly transparent logic of debt & ownership, with legal title over-riding political fiat?); Dembisa Moyo, Paul Kagame et al attribute the 'vulture' function directly to aid/relief system itself. (unfortunately not elaborated on in article). >Oct. 2009: African Development Bank et al. statistics/forecasts: SA 6.4% contraction Q1, 180,000 jobs lost. Standard Development Bank predicts 400,000 2009 total. Egypt: 100,000 layoffs in 6 months to March; up to 500,000 more through year. 12,000 mining jobs lost in Zambia, 20,000 in horticulture in Tanzania (falling US/European demand for cut flowers). Nigeria govt. revenue down 30% with falling oil prices. 12-16m africans to be 'thrown into poverty this year' (UN). Continental per capita income to shrink for first time since 1994, with export earnings down $250m. Tourism & remittances down wherever they exist. 'Signs of upturn' in commodity price revival, say 'some analysts'. (http://en.afrik.com/article16251.html) >Nov. 2009: World Bank tells Zambia to raise electricity tariffs to 'boost infrastructure's contribution to growth' (http://en.afrik.com/article16503.html). Nov. 2009: 'spate of violence against Chinese nationals in Angola' http://en.afrik.com/article16469.html >Dec. 2009: prostitution market developed in Sanso, Mali, since nearby Morila gold mine opened 2001: women brought from Nigeria in alleged transit to eg. Spain or Senegal, then 'asked to settle' at Sanso with pre-emptive debt. With EUR 3 sex transaction price and EUR 22.50 monthly room rent, average 6 months to pay off debt to pimp. Incomes increased somewhat with opening of another mine at Syama (Sissako), 2007. Meanwhile local youth, 'lured by money', move 'discreetly' into prostitution business, 'out of reach' of HIV NG Os? etc. Sanso police 'monitor' prostitutes and use them as 'accomplices' in extortion from clients. (http://en.afrik.com/article16630.html) >Dec. 2009: Mali: govt. land deals 'forcing local farmers out of vocation'. (rice cultivators in particular.) 160,000 hectares leased to foreign farmers. Libya & China mentioned as joint venture partners. Miali land development minister Abou Sow argues that 70,000 hectares of land are developed out of a 'potentially cultivable' 1m. 'Almost $0.5m needed to clear enough land for local food needs'. [*but one Mali-Libyan irrigation/canal project alone worth $54m: ?relation between investment volumes/returns and the pitiful $0.5m quoted?] ('Land code' protects 'local land rights' on 'unclearly defined' criterion of 'productivity'.) (http://en.afrik.com/article16594.html)
Nigeria: 'decoupling' myth case study (mostly: allAfrica.com). Oct. 2008: Lagos Chamber of Commerce president declares Nigeria immune to global financial crisis, thanks to factors including 'large population', 'vibrant informal sector' 'low credit' economy to the point of being a 'problem', and 'lack of integration into world economy'. World Bank also says Nigeria immune. >also Oct. 2008, another allafrica.com correspondent says 'crisis is here but we may not feel effects yet'. specifies: threat to offshore bank credit & international PPP projects; fall in international donor support; slump in illiquid stock market; reduced remittances; oil price fall. >Oct. & again Dec. 2008: 'financial crisis hits Nigerian cocoa industry'; Dec.: 'Nigeria not immune', wonders new finance minister; Dec. 19: 'Nigerian economy may reel under financial crisis'; June 2009: crisis hits Nigerian real estate; Aug. 2009: 'Nigeria bailout may hit N1 trillion (allafrica.com)
May 2008: Nigerian president Umaru Yar'Adua says it will take until 2015 to generate enough electricity to cover the country through national grid. 40% of population currently covered. Meanwhile crude exports at 2.15m barrels per day, despite 587,000 'lost' to insurgency. 'Commercial & industrial sectors' use private diesel generators. Lack of refining capacity means dependence on fuel imports. smartass blogger says don't bother connecting rural areas to grid, use solar/wind power to 'require villages to develop sustainably' (http://smashthemirror.wordpress.com/2008/05/30/closer-look-at-nigeria/) Aug. 2009: Niger Delta amnesty comes into effect. Sept.: ceasefire expires, extended by Delta militants for one month. Oct.: CNOOC (China) negotiating for $30bn stake in 23 oil blocks; MEND spokesman warns China against 'negotiating with the wrong people before there is justice in the region'. (http://en.afrik.com/article16239.html) Oct. Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force describes just-expired amnesty as 'calculated plot to divert attention from region's underdevelopment & right to self-willpower'. (http://en.afrik.com/article16246.html). MEND also returns to hostilities. Dec. 2009: 'Nigeria: police & vigilante killings out of control' (http://en.afrik.com/article16612.html)
South Africa, Jul. 8. 2009: around 70,000 workers building football stadiums & tourism/transport infrastructure for 2010 football world cup strike for 13% wage increase. Jul.16: strike settled for 12%, applicable across civil engineering sector, with 'some benefits' for casual workers after 18 months.
>Jul. 27: 150,000 municipal workers strike for 15%, emptying garbage onto streets of Johannesburg. 'recession has eliminated 250,000 jobs'; OFFICIAL unemployment rate at 25%.
[more on SA to come pending access to a computer that supports the Libcom & Abahlali sites] >Apr. 2009: Pfizer settles out of court for undisclosed amount with Nigerian state of Kano over 1996 antibiotic tests in which 11 (acknowledged by company/50 alleged by state) children died and 181 were 'injured' (eg. blindness, deafness, loss of speech, 'mental & physical deformities'), from a total of 200 (Pfizer version: 'only 11 of 200 died!'. Pfizer says it had 'verbal consent' from parents, and blames meningitis epidemic which killed 12,000 others at the time.
>india (wildcat 83/spring 2008: http://www.wildcat-www.de/en/wildcat/83/w83_india_en.htm): preceding dependence on capital importation & software-related exports led to rupee overvaluation, hitting ‘traditional & labour-intensive’ sectors, eg. textiles, tea, other agriculture. autumn 2008: ‘trickling down of credit crunch’; stock market down 50% jan.-mid-oct. 2008, hitting eg. DLF (real estate), Reliance group, Ranbaxy (biotech). oct. stock market loss at $1 trillion, i.e. more or less 2007-8 GDP. [*?subsequent recovery?] losses attributed to selling by ‘foreign institutional investors’, who previously held around 25% of total float. resulting dollar outflow hit foreign exchange reserves, down from $300bn to 258bn July-Nov. ‘panic reaction’ by companies borrowing from banks for conversion into dollar funds led to ‘massive credit squeeze’, immediately transferred downwards to rural micro-credit. capital flight from rupee caused ‘massive devaluation’: [??] from Rs 39.25 ‘early 2008’ to Rs 50.5 Nov. against the dollar. devaluation accompanied by withdrawal of US orders, so no help to eg. textile sector, but worsened situation for India’s main import: oil & ‘related products eg. fertilizer’. Apr.-Jul. fertilizer imports at $4.1bn, against total agricultural exports of $7.3 billion. trade deficit (oil-driven) up from $7bn to 14bn Aug. 2007-2008. trade deficit unlikely to be balanced by exports: down 20% oct. 2008; bulk cargo shipping rates down 50% Aug.; ‘tonnes of’ china-bound iron ore reported ‘stuck in Indian ports’. many of the SE Zs? at centre of conflict now up for sale. ‘trade war with China intensified since oct.2008’.
Dec. 2008: state bailout package of only $8.5bn. (compare $580bn in China). ‘there has been criticism’ of deficit spending not on investment but for ‘populist’ farmer loan waivers & agricultural price guarantees. energy import dependence among ‘main variables’: oil=40% of all imports first half 2008; Apr.-Jul $40bn against $72bn total exports WHOLE YEAR 2007-8. Oil-fulled generators back up most of electricity grid. Second half 2008: non-transfer by price-setting state of wholesale oil price fall leads to truckers/oil company workers strikes; local (eg. Assam oil production, Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project & US nuclear deal politically fraught. >agriculture spending 'neither populism nor investment', but attempt 'to curb explosion of proletarianization' & associated 'welfare spending, mass starvation and/or social unrest among 800 million people in the countryside'. 'pressure from rural south' played out late July 2008: WTO deal blocked by Indian & Chinese insistence on agricultural tariff barriers against 'ag. over-production from global north'; 'little echo in India' of 'global food riots' of Apr. 2008 'confirmed protectionist attitude': rice export ban, 'minimum support price up 20%. but 'global recession shakes up the balance' of 'undeclared protectionism'. state fertilizer subsidy bill 'explodes to c.$24bn in 2008', plus c.$17bn farm loan waivers 2008-9, 'topped-up' since credit crunch 'left a lot of micro-credit banks dry'. P Lus? $10bn for National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme if fully implemented. total: $48bn against $158bn total state receipts 2007-8 (depleted by loss of tax and customs revenue under 'neoliberal' policy since 1990s). minimum farm price cost additional. Oct. 2008: cotton price expected to fall 40%, with export figures to halve in 2008-9 given 20% overproduction in China & India. Sep. 2008: state minimum support price for cotton increased 40%. >under pressure from rural misery, maximum wage-hours pressure against labour in labour-intensive manufacturing: 'starvation of capital for technological jump' after casualization & low tax/customs policy absorbed. most profitable manufacturing attached to (international or domestic middle-class consumption) export or capital inflows, eg. IT/call centres 70% dependent on US business. escalating trade war with China in second half 2008: price cutting to compensate for demand slump. IT union estimates job losses at 10,000 Sept.-Dec. 2008, 50,000 2009. Satyam scandal 'confirmed state of sector', Jan. 2009. autumn 2008: wave of textile layoffs as orders slump despite rupee fall. internal competition between tech. levels & production scales. Nov. 2008: industry association predicts 700,000 job losses over 'coming months'. Jan. 2009: clothing export body puts job losses of last 6 months at 500,000. steel industry hit by 40-50% world price fall, declining local demand & Chinese lifting of export tax. Nov. 2008: JSW announces 20% production cut; Arcelor Mittal? shuts down two projects worth $20bn and others follow. Mining companies shut down 20 mines & reduce production at 50 others. last quarter car industry sales decline of 20% as domestic middle-class spending stops. mass firing of temp workers. suppliers follow. Newly-formed & confident clusters of temp workers hardest hit: Oct. 2008 Hero Honda wildcat; 'a few days later' motorcycle manufacturers collectively forecast 10% sales drop. Gujarat diamond strike wave Jul. 2008 demanding 20% wage rise; subsequent 60% crisis production drop. Late Dec.: workers 'deliver ultimatum to government': support for those laid off & 20% electricity subsidy. >distribution of central government money & jobs exacerbates tension between single states & 'communities': eg. Oct. 2008 Maharashtra nationalists attack Bihari migrants seeking railway jobs; Nov. West Bengal & Kerala complain at allocation of central tax income and debt relief. >state uses maoist insurgency as pretext for attacks on eg. anti-SEZ action: Nov.-Dec. 2008 successful road blockades & police station encirclements in Lalgarh, West Bengal after such an attack by police/stalinists.
>after some food riots (spring 2008), UN FAO-backed schemes to 'strengthen peasantry & subsistence farming: 'those who drop out of cash crop rat race are supposed to survive on their own small plot of land, backed up by micro-credit & ngo management'. or where 'unable to be tied to own soil', enrolled in labour-intensive rural labour schemes, subject to village council political leaders/'ration shop regime; struggles within NREGS show that rural poor see themselves 'not as individual claimants but waged workers'. iran (http://www.wildcat-www.de/en/wildcat/85/w85_iran_en.htm): June through summer 2009 and onwards: mass post-election mobilization 'based on the four groups hit most by the crisis: workers, youth, women and students'. Immediately preceding context: spring official unemployment rates at 11.2% overall; 17.8% youth; urban teenagers 23.7%, young women 29%. based on classification of anyone doing one hour's work as 'employed'. failure of post-2006 credit-driven 'fast acting' employment support programme backed by oil rents. Crisis mediated through commodity 'boom': 2005-2008 inflation rate increase from 10.4 to 25.4% with threefold increase in money supply from oil revenue. Response through selective subsidies 'further impoverished' those outside client groups. drought and return to wheat imports (ended 2004) since 2008. Pre-crisis $4.5bn withdrawal from 'future fund' for food imports. Central bank reports number in 'poverty' up during first Ahmadinejad term: now c.15m. rural areas hit hardest, also single women & urban unemployed. May 1 2009: 150 arrests at worker/union demonstration for higher minimum wage. Banks hold $27bn outstanding debt & fail to settle debt writh central bank. Sept. 2007-Sept. 2008: central bank debt up 106%. Pre-election 2009: govt. attempts to cut pertol, diesel, gas & other energy subsidies; abandons plan for fear of election effect. Iran imports 40% of petrol due to lack of refining capacity: June 2007 attempt to ration subsidized amount & raise price set off 'petrol revolt'. >on comparable class effects of commodity inflation/deflation: see also venezuela inflation; nigeria
>?for Russia/satellite economies/oil-gas Central Asia 'great game': talk to Simon Pirani? >romania (feb. 2009 wildcat: http://www.wildcat-www.de/en/actual/e070_crisis_rumaenien.htm): Manpower report April 2008: largest (?European/world?) labour shortage, esp. in construction, tourism, shoes & textiles; 10-20% of population, 5m people, working outside country; lowest EU wages (even after relative increases) fail to attract local ‘sweat’ at just above legal minimum in textile factories; gap filled by ‘immediately conflict-causing’ agency workers from China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Philippines (2008 up to Sept.: internationally-experienced Filipina textile workers at Mondostar boycott overtime, obtain Philippine state blacklisting of the company & in Sept. leave collectively. Jan 2007 400 Chinese women at Gamba (Italian company producing in Romania) go on ‘spontaneous’ strike; unclear whether subsequent departures were voluntary or deportation. Gamba replaced them with 500 contract workers from Bangladesh: departures (dispersal across Europe) and lock-IN. Jan. 2009 ‘English Bengali press’ reports flight of half the Bangladeshi contract workers in Romania, and strike by 200 at unspecified textile factory) >feb. 2009: after 9.8 per cent 2008 gdp growth, with 25% wage rises [*?generally, or sporadic/strike-driven, as at Renault?] & 4% unemployment, return of migrants (eg 500,000 unemployed in Spanish construction) possible while redundancies threatened in cars, steel & chemicals, & textiles employers now claiming that ‘dynamic is aggravated’ by 2005 lifting of import quotas.
>spain (http://www.wildcat-www.de/en/wildcat/83/w83_spain_en.htm): pre-crisis 'consumed as much cement as the four biggest european economies put together; 5 of world's 10 biggest construction firms ex-family business based in spain; 'modernization' based on service & public sector growth & agricultural/industrial decline. decade average 3.5% 'growth' even after euro subsidies ran out in 2006. Jul. 2007: unemployment rate below 8% for first time, but a third overall and half in construction sector of al new jobs are temp contracts. Feb. 2009: official unemployment at 14.4%: up 100% in construction & 43% in manufacturing. under-25 rate at 29.5%. average household mortgage repayment at 50% of income. Jan. 2009 S&P downgrades sovereign debt: 'if these countries want to avoid state bankruptcy they have to lower reproduction costs massively'. 'analysts' recommend return to 1970s-model concertation ('Pactos de Moncloa') as 'best way to lower incomes'. Construction sector: a fifth of workforce & a third of turnover concentrated in 1.1% of companies; average number of employees 5, 'topped up by nominal self-employment'. high labour turnover & 'cascade-like' employment structure with multiple sub-contracting allows hiring/firing at will in construction & transport. construction drives/driven by migrant labour: 2004 spain absorbed one third of all eu immigration ('mainly morocco, latin amerca, eastern europe'). 30% of construction workforce aged 16-29; 25% migrants. overall informal sector estimated at 500,000-1.5m workers & 23% gdp. 16% of all illegal migrants in construction. 44% of contracts time-limited, 20% 'self-employed'. 250-300 construction deaths per year=31% or all recorded workplace deaths. Approx. one third of construction turnover from residential building. pre-crisis residential overproduction estimated at 1 million flats. 2007 flats built up 10%, planning applications 'already down 16%'. 2008: planning applications down 60%. >2001-2009: prison population up from 45,000 to 72,000; at 160/100,000 second highest in 'western world' behind u.s & ahead of u.k. >little evidence of struggle (feb. 2009), attributed tentatively to fluidity of work situations. institutional 'alarm bells' at greek riots.
>poland (http://www.wildcat-www.de/en/wildcat/83/w83_pol_en.htm): feb. 5. 2009: metal workers from bankrupt ZZM factory protest ('something is happening...letting off steam') outside state electricity company PGE: organized by Solidarnosc , which 'blames bankruptcy not on crisis but on almost doubled electricity prices in a year'. >2004-2008 'western europe's workbench', attracting major car & appliance makers for almost wholly export-oriented (mostly within e.u) production. simultaneous outward migration & internal 'reluctance' towards low-wage (manufacturing AVERAGE: EUR 470 a month) mobilization. number of temp contracts from 600,000 in 2000 to 3.2m summer 2008. increased 'labour unrest' with 'drying up of labour market': official strikes from 8 in 2005 to 1,736 2007 to 11,987 first half 2008. 2007-2008 public sector strike wave imposed 2-year wage rise of 30%. central bank raised interest rates 5 times to 6.25% 2006-June 2008 against 'overheating' but couldn't contain wage dynamic. construction & real estate price boom based on foreign currency mortgage lending up to summer 2008: 70% of mortgages denominated in swiss francs. Then sept. 2008-feb. 2009, zloty fell back to 2004 level; house prices down 15-20%; monthly zloty rates for foreign-denominated loans up 25-30%. Jan. 2009: passenger car production down 30%; light trucks down 58%. (car industry expansion 'was only possible on credit; sector was financial crisis-driver'). crisis struck before political 'maturity' of auto workers' 'push to western dynamic'. Oct. 2008: government & economist deny local effect of crisis; businesses deny redundancy plans. 'Everything changes in November': 38,000 'group redundancies' in one month, against 55,000 the entire year before. (no subsidized short-hours/temprary stop scheme on German/Italian model.) Feb. 2009 'crisis still reaching working class gradually'; redundancies delayed by notice periods. construction crisis with project cancellations; ever-upward unemployment figures. still low rate of migrant return (10% of registered job-seekers); Feb. & onward 2009: polish workers in u.k refinery strikes 'show they see their place during the crisis in britain'. unions pre-empt employer demands for concessions; central bank cuts interest rates on euro convergence pretext; 'no political mobilization so far' comparable to latvia/bugaria: 'majority of workers movement still considers itself right-wing': summer 2008 bus drivers protest outside warsaw city hall chants 'communists out!'; '"communism" still works as code for "ruling class"'. 'acts of resistance' like ZZM protest compared to u.k refinery strikes as 'expressions of crisis' which 'avoid making reference to it'. Jan. 2009: redundant workers (4,700 of 5,000) at Videocon, Indian owned 'display maker' occupy plant to ensure payment of back wages & 'compensation'. Korean owner of Han Pol? electronics flees country Christmas 2008: workers occupied factory for 3 days as employment office refused to register them as unemployed for lack of dismissal notice. 'leftist union' Sierpien explicity rules out any relation to crisis; occupation ended 3 days later with court appointment of liquidator. Feb 10.: ZZM workers occupy factory & burn tyres after owners refuse redundancy payout beyond Z200 & refer workers to liquidator.
>>June-July. 2009 (http://www.prol-position.net/articles/2009/chinese-workers-in-warsaw): chinese construction workers (hired through chinese labour agency, paying c.EUR 1,000 each in fees/visas, through Polish subcontractors for JW Construction) refused contracts in Warsaw; paid for first month then no more; stopped working & demanded wages after 3 months, early June. fired, evicted from dormitories & visas revoked in July. Chinese embassy refused entry & 'asked them to wait for a solution'. from mid-July camped outside embassy with all demands plus another for return of visa/agencyfees. local food & camping equipment support; local govt. set up toilet; occasional red cross food; embassy instructions not to talk to media ignored. 'after a few days' embassy starts negotiations with polish & chinese companies. anarchist groups providing food involve Polish labour inspectorate; contracts etc investigated. Jul. 24: embassy announces flights back to china will be paid, with wages to come later, then immediately breaks up 'sceptical' workers.
>china (http://www.prol-position.net/articles/2009/crisis-in-china) herald tribune, jan. 2009: "china already in a state of panic", faced with 'possible social explosion of peasants, workers & unemployed'. 'china important for question of formation of global working class 'that can finish off capitalist mode of production worldwide'. 2006 onwards: higher industrial wages, energy, raw materials & food demand, combined with slow yuan appreciation, lead to 'substantial' price rises, higher production costs & profit squeeze. meanwhile low-wage struggles force govt. to keep raising wages. attempted 'spatial fix' from 2007 with relocation of eg. textile & consumer goods factories to 'hinterland' or vietnam; subsequent increase in struggle in these areas. Meanwhile 'CP legitimacy threatened' by capitalists' disregard of labour law. Jan. 2008: new Labour Contract Law leads to some layoffs, contract & wage demands & reported increase in struggle in Pearl River Delta. summer 2008: 'ruling class still believed in crisis-exemption'. but autumn: falling gdp, manufacturing growth, exports, investment, energy consumption, state revenue, intra-asian trade, plus bursting of real estate bubble. >'no consistent position on crisis within CP (March 2009). 'repeated conflicts' between advocates of 'using crisis to modernize economy, even at risk of social turmoil', eg. Guangdong/Shanghai provincial govts., & central government wish to preserver 'china model' of cheap consumer exports in hope of ongoing social calm. Guangdong advocated factory clsoures, offshoring of cheap production, 'extension of hi-tech/capital goods' industries. Now (March) 'capitalists use crisis whether it affects them or not': clsoing/relocating factories, cashing-in state subsidies, enforcing labour law non-observance. Guangzhou employers call for looser labour law. Jan. 2009: 'industrialists' report non-monitoring/enforcement of 2008 labour law. 2009: central govt. bans regional govt. wage increases & consents to wage cuts. govt. spokesman says 'do everything possible to avoid layoffs'. Nov. 2008: Pearl Delta worker reports of temp layoffs in textiles, toys etc, 'core workers' retained with overtime bans, irregular hours, imposed 'vacations'. Nov. 2008: reports of 5-10% of migrant workers returning to provinces: denied by Guangdong officials. Labour ministry job loss figures at 10m in Jan.; 20m Feb. Late summer 2008: taxi drivers & teachers actions 'copied across country'. late 2008-early 2009: 'workers rallies & riots' in Pearl & Yangtze deltas: reoriented from wages, labour law compliance & physical conditions towards back-wages & layoff compensation. State union ACFTU admits 'increased labour struggles with crisis', without stating figures. (March 2009): CP 'fears tradition of rulers overthrown in crisis by social/peasant-intellectual-civil servant alliances'. Insists on limited nature of internal crisis, threatens 'police measures' for 'social stability' & suppresses reports of labour struggles. Externally govt. uses threat of chinese labour unrest as bargaining tool against u.s demands for yuan appreciation. >'Recent weeks' to March: central govt. has intervened directly in labour disputes & paid back-wages/compensation itself. cities & industrial zones set up 'special funds' for rescue of near-bankrupt companies. [check date, add more & results, eg, gdp recovery, real estate & stock market bubbles!] rmb 4 trillion=15%gdp central stimulus, directed to infrastructure & residential building. 8% gdp growth 'seen as necessary' to absorb internal migration into employment; 6% would be 'critical'. Jan.2009: rmb850bn funding for 'comprehensive' medical care scheduled for 2011 instead of 2020.
>Dec. 2009: officially 'increasing numbers of women' have entered labour market with male job losses in crisis; 10-year wage stagnation leaves female wages for same work at 75-80% of male levels. 'twice as many' women in 'informal or precarious' sectors as three years ago. 'crisis has also led to considerable increase in working hours'. (zmag interview with hk textile union official cheung lai-ha: http://www.zmag.org/zmag/viewArticle/23259. number of hk textile workers down from 320,000 to 32,000 in 20 yrs, with 80% clerical, the remainder 'technical', eg cleaning, 'replacing made in china labels with made in hk')
>Dec. 2009: (FT) 'Hong Kong's cage homes capture city's stark inequality': 'small shabby flats' in Kowloon & real estate bubble centre Mongkok subdivided between 10 men each in separate cages. (interviewee sleeps in parks in summer because more comfortable). HK bubble anomaly? compare room subdivision (spatial & temporal) among UK migrant workers, reported pre-crisis; during crisis govt. 'responded' (i.e. to neighbouring property-owners' aesthetic concerns) by proposing quotas by area for multi-occupant housing.
>Aug. 2009: defeat of Ssangyong strike/occupation, South Korea after 77 days & prolonged 'quasi-military' assault. Detention & prosecution of 'scores of workers'. Reported as 'victory for workers' by UK 'Morning Star'.
Dec. 2009: Iraq oil contract auctions (televised stage-show): oil ministry sets limit of $2 per barrel fee. Exxon-Mobil, refusing the fee limit, loses bids it was expected to win; winners include BP-CNPC; CNPC-Petronas (Malaysia)-Total; Petronas-Japex (Japan); Petronas-Shell; Lukoil-Statoil; Gazprom et al (incl. Petronas). Exxon-Shell get West Qurna phase 1, for subsequent transfer to Lukoil-Statoil. Escobar (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KL16Ak02.html): ministry proclaims 'national control' (of ex-nationalized commodity), but oil rent sufficiency for state/military 'independence' 'enormously debatable' (Escobar, ATOL), esp. given dependence on foreign logistics. but rents in hand of iran-hezbollah-aligned 'relatively wealthy' state: 'Maliki as new Saddam', post Cheney/neocons?
>Oct. 2009: Ireland votes 'yes' in second Lisbon treaty referendum under blackmail of fiscal crisis and euro-dependence; Nov.: with Czech ratification EU becomes juridical nation state. (http://www.spectrezine.org/europe/Coughlan3.htm)
>mexico (most sources: narco news full archive) June 2008: biotech groups use 'food crisis' (interpreted in physical shortage sense, of course) to lobby Mexican govt. to lift GMO ban in maize farming areas. pre-emptive experiment in Mennonite areas, with assasination of farm activist after threat to tear out the plantation (counterpunch)
>June 30 2008: 'Merida Initiative'/'Plan Mexico' becomes law: militarization of Nafta 'security & prosperity' agreement in name of 'counter-narcotics, counter-terrorism & border security'(global research)
Oct. 2008: Mexican companies' scramble for dollars causes 50% peso crash against dollar
>Dec.2008 report on ongoing situation: 'Wall of violence on Mexico's southern border: Calderon's "two-faced" policy combines police, the military, gangs and Los Zeta to fulfil US mandate to deter Central American migration (narco news) >Dec. 11: court rejects SME union application for reversal of liquidation; union switches from this demand to request for mediation and rehiring or 20,000 workers by CFE, the state company the assets were transferred to.
>Jan. 2009: san diego news 'Smuggling into US unhindered by drug trade war' (i.e. 'war' to be taken literally: joint US-Mexican-gang militarization of northern states)
March 2009: 'Dirty war against indigenous peoples: Mexican military uses drug war cover to repress indigenous movements in Guerrero (n.n)
March 2009: Mexican Federal govt. cuts water supply to San Cristobal (Chiapas) because city owed money (n.n)
March 2009: mainstream US media compare Mexico and Pakistan as borderline 'failed states' and drug war battlegrounds. Pakistan faces IMF-imposed 'natural monopoly' selloff to 'same companies eyeing Pemex'. global research: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12709 *post-Nafta Mexico more dependent than ever on oil rents; Pakistan at centre of gas 'great game. both countries hit by remittance & foreign investment collapse in crisis.
April 2009: US-funded Mexican judicial reform creates two-track justice system: citizens and enemies of the state (n.n)
>Oct. 2009: Mexican president Calderon orders military shutdown of state-owned Luz y Fuerza del Centro electricity company and fire 44,000 workers in response to negative 'outlooks' on sovereign debt from S&P and Fitch. Early Dec,: 'thousands' of unionists and supporters from across the country 'take over' and 'shut down' Mexico city, expelling 'corporate media' (narco news)
>Nov. 2009: Mexican unemployment estimated at 40%; 72m of 107m population on or below poverty line; all official political parties discredited and elections stolen anyway; right-wing commentators use 1810-1910 myth to warn of imminent revolution; left/insurgent groups demur or warn that the warnings themselves will be used as pretext for further militarization (http://www.counterpunch.org/ross11272009.html)
>[to align with instances of catastrophic nature-looting (desertification, poisoned Ganges etc; eg. 'commoditizing nature's last straw' above) as normal element of 'reproduction': collapse of representation of the problem into 'climate change=THE Science=carbon tax & trade agenda for 1. reifying the problem & separating it from its 'organic'(!) relation to logical imperatives of capital; 2. commoditizing it as 'risk'; 3. new field for emergency powers]
>dec. 2009: george soros says: 'that's why we financial types like' carbon trading: 'there are financial opportunities'. >energy companies lobby for full carbon tax (Exxon Mobil on record doing so) as sufficient legal force to drive 'carbon' derivatives market (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KL10Ad01.html); CDS inventor Blythe Masters is handling it for JP Morgan (cf. blogs ad infinitum). Martin 'Great Conservatives' Hutchinson points out parallel dependence on computer modelling of financial risk and abstracted 'climate' contingency as bases for rent-seeking risk-commoditization (http://prudentbear.com/index.php/thebearslairview?art_id=10323). See Hutchinson also on incipient 'green start-up' bubble' (http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/thebearslairview?art_id=10317)
(stuff below is inadequately dated or thought through or not at all; to be rectified soon.) >u.k: (pre-crisis) right to buy, stock transfer, regeneration, planning law concentrating real estate value in existing city space etc etc: long-term restructuring of housing as pillar of asset-price economy
>(shortly pre-crisis) scottish nationalists propose 'tiger triangle' (or whatever they called it: scotland, iceland & ireland!)
>brown use of terror law against icelandic banks>June: iceland parliamentary rejection of uk/dutch/imf debt 'deal' (i.e. imposition of liability) Dec: Iceland parliament still refusing to ratify it.
>early 2009: competitive devaluations of own labour by uk industrial workers in form of voluntary (or 'voluntary') wage/hours cuts without 'cassa integrazione'/'Kurzarbeit' system. 'workers of the world unite' to do more of this, says FT 'lombard' column
>Dec. 2009: UK govt. creates new agency (Insfrastructure UK) for next 50 years of PFI. Earlier in the year Treasury cancelled the deadline for bringing PFI borrowing (i.e. state funds private sector borrowing for fixed multi-decade terms to pay for ex-state services; off fiscal balance sheet as borrowing is 'private') back on books: fiscal crisis will mean more reliance on PFI. Meanwhile govt. is denouncing off-balance-sheet vehicles in private finance. meanwhile official denunciations of off-balance-sheet vehicles in private-private finance
>swp proclaims 'victory' on visteon exit after union promulgates legally nonsensical physical eviction threat; subsequent payout deal splits workers into drastic seniority hierarchy
>lindsey refinery wildcat & sympathy strikes immediately transformed into 'nationality' issue; subsequent strike wave (less susceptible to this treatment) & settlement barely covered (in fact some of what coverage there is retrospectively reintegrates first wave into theme of 'job security')
>green activists picket to keep coal mining shut down
>Dec 2009: FT reports G 4 S? sees fiscal crisis as 'opportunity' to take on more police work (already runs mobile & prison cells & investigation teams, not to speak of prisons, detention centres etc.); UK police chiefs respond by promising vigorous competition for 'security service of CHOICE status
>Dec. 14. 2009: british airways cabin crew vote 9-1 for 12-day christmas strike. (billed 'AIR STRIKES ruin christmas' by daily express.) Dec. 15: unite boss derek simpson calls the strike 'over the top'. next to interview with 14-yr cabin crew worker describing £1350-yr/£850-month basic pay+allowances to £1,000-1,400, evening standard runs quicker-to-read 'comparative' chart using long haul crew 'average' to put annual wage at £29,000. £300m a year of b.a's 'catastrophic' (£400m) losses come from classically 'underfunded' pension scheme. dec.17: media rush to find individual cabin crew worried that strike is 'going too far' (independent front page, not just e.s etc) Dec.18: court throws out strike ballot as some already-redundant workers balloted; BA lawyers, U Nite? lawyers & presiding judge ALL referred moral mertis of strike vis-vis consumers. Unite claim BA made redundancy data unavailable, in further indication after tube strike re-ballots that setting up legal-procedural traps remains useful employer weapon
>[!date!]tube strike over redundancies following financial breakdown of pfi project & newspaper correspondence reaction: 'we've all lost jobs and wages, how dare they try not to!'[?civil obedience?]
>[!date!] uk govt. abandons threat of partial post office privatization after parliamentary labour party split & cwu hiring of ex-newlabour pr agency (??name??) for lobbying; but cwu has already 'accepted principle' of 'modernization', leaving it without official argument when next round of e.u directive terms plus universal service/pension liability financial burdens announced. repeated large majority strike votes across court challenges; weeks of rolling strikes then advantage surrendered by union for 'christmas truce'
>late 2009: lse academic proposes perfecting thatcher anti-strike laws for fiscal crisis by breaking public sector up into single businesses (eg. brixton/brixton hill post offices), with all implied anti-'sympathy' firewalls
>civil obedience file: unite/swp visteon stitch-up; left spurning of lindsey et al strikers on daily mail etc evidence; green anti-coal protest; middle class youth mobilization at last, for: tube 'drink-in' PRE-ban >(reverse remittances etc): chavez petrol to u.s & to london buses deals > >philippines gdp hole from dubai & other non-remittances?
>'multilateral' global capital/institutional reality & delusion: colombia u.s military buildup & chavez duly grandstanding >iran/venezuela/brazil deals >turkey: south-eastward diplomatic reorientation >russian gas price rises/shortages; pipeline 'great game' competition across central asia >mittal arcelor takeover >'emerging markets' orthodoxy sequence: 'decoupling' (caracas/hanoi best performing stock markets of ?2007?/''worst victims'/chinese stimulus & 'neo-bubble')
>bangladesh textile explosions
>guadeloupe/martinique/french polynesia
>california quasi-bankruptcy: payment in 'iou's: suggestion of cuts in the heart of the state's public-private economy: the prisons! (apparently nothing came of it; too much private sector income at stake)
>late 2009: return of 'catastrophe bonds'
>headline financial events: emphasise: fannie/freddie; aig, transformation of insurance & outcry over bonuses while exponentially bigger payout going on to creditors (french banks invoked national law not allowing them to settle for less!)
>swf u.s banking buy-ins
>?lehman insolvency fees? >(?too early?: transfer of gm pension liabilities to union >daimler flees from chrysler) >fiat, itself precociously bankrupt in 2002-3 & subsequently rescued from Italian creditor-bank ownership by merrill lynch, buys chrysler in chapter 11 for zero cash down >gm (now also ch. 11) attempt to sell off european unit to sberbank (i.e. russian state!)-funded consortium: sets off conflict between government & union 'defenders' of 'national' labour in various european countries; non-sale welcomed by uk union leaders & attacked in germany, notwithstanding earlier cross-border 'solidarity' demonstrations >toyota announces first ever(?) loss
>pre-pre: transition from unpredictability/''irrationality' of capital imperative effects, more or less denied by defenders, to elevation of this commodity to essential element of accumulation (?date from Mc Nally??)
>italy, nov. 2009: ex-eutelia ceo (i.e. shut down factory boss) dresses up in commando gear and stages fake 'police' eviction of occupying workers, who call police and get him evicted
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 'psychosocial' index cards: >france telecom suicides/management consultancy survey
>cognitive-behavioural therapy to be 'offered' to 'jobseekers'
>ken livingstone olympic smile-enforcement
>sudden arrivals into mainstream perception: >(monolines burst into public consciousness: insurers of the world's bonds, on capital more like that of a mid-size web design agency) >ratings agencies: sudden discovery that they were paid by the rated companies, & a scapegoat is born!! More tellingly, 'triple A' content retrospectively grasped to have been relative (i.e. what was below was worse) rather than absolute. >likewise: quant probability modelling discovered to run on the basis of a world without history, and to be more 'toxic' as more history happens in inverse proportion to its moneyspinning powers inside the no-history 'bubble' (i.e. vacuum).